Bitcoin’s Fifth Epoch: Key Trends and Predictions for the Next Four Years

Bitcoin’s fifth epoch refers to the fifth “halving” event in Bitcoin’s history. In Bitcoin, an epoch is not a standard term but could be understood in the context of the “halving” events, which occur every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. Much to the chagrin of 4/20 enthusiasts, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving just a few hours before on April 19, 2024.

It is important to note that the supply of Bitcoin always remains capped at 21 million coins. The halving event does play a major role as it reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created. This reduction in the stock-to-flow rate has had an impact on price.

Historically, halvings have been associated with significant increases in Bitcoin’s price due to the reduced supply and increasing demand.

Each block takes on average about 10 minutes to mine and when viewed on the blockchain it is referred to as “block height.” When the lucky machine that performs the correct hash occurs, the owner or company receives what is called the “block reward.” With the most recent halving, as of April 19, 2024, miners receive a block reward of 3.125 bitcoins.

There are many notable events that have occurred in each of the previous 4-year epochs. Let’s take a look back at some of those events and the prices associated with them.

THE HALVINGS

1. First Halving: Bitcoin price $12

· Block Height: 210,000

· Date: November 28, 2012

· Block Reward Reduced From: 50 BTC to 25 BTC

2. Second Halving: Bitcoin price $650

· Block Height: 420,000

· Date: July 9, 2016

· Block Reward Reduced From: 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC

3. Third Halving: Bitcoin price $8,727

· Block Height: 630,000

· Date: May 11, 2020

· Block Reward Reduced From: 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC

4. Fourth Halving: Bitcoin price $28,000

· Block Height: 840,000

· Date: March 27, 2024

· Block Reward Reduced From: 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC

5. Fifth Halving: Bitcoin price (Projected) $110,000

· Block Height: 1,050,000

· Estimated Date: Around April 2028

· Block Reward Reduced From: 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC

Bitcoin will continue to undergo halvings approximately every four years until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached, which is estimated to occur around the year 2140. The next halving is currently estimated to occur on March 27, 2028 (block height 1,050,000).

While I have predicted a 5th halving price of $110,000, only time will tell. One thing can be said: the price has gone up significantly with each 4-year cycle.

EPOCH EVENTS

1.First Epoch (2009–2012)

· Genesis Block Mined: January 3, 2009

• Bitcoin’s first block, known as the Genesis Block or Block 0, was mined by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

· First Transaction: May 22, 2010

• A programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz made the first documented purchase using Bitcoin — two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, a transaction now famously known as “Bitcoin Pizza Day.”

· First Halving: November 28, 2012

• The Bitcoin block reward was halved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

  
  

2. Second Epoch (2012–2016)

• Bitcoin Reaches $1,000: November 2013

• Bitcoin’s price crossed the $1,000 mark for the first time, attracting significant media attention and increasing interest from institutional investors.

• Silk Road Shutdown: October 2013

• The FBI shut down the Silk Road, a dark web marketplace that used Bitcoin for transactions. This event highlighted Bitcoin’s use in illicit activities and led to increased regulatory scrutiny.

• Bitcoin Adoption Growth: 2014–2015

• Major companies and institutions began accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment, including Overstock.com, and Microsoft, signaling growing mainstream acceptance.

• Second Halving: July 9, 2016

• The Bitcoin block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

  
  

3. Third Epoch (2016–2020)

• Bitcoin Reaches $20,000: December 2017

• Bitcoin’s price surged to nearly $20,000, driven by a wave of speculation and media hype. This was a peak before a significant market correction.

• SegWit Activation: August 2017

• 2017 “Block Size Wars” where Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated, which was a major upgrade to the Bitcoin protocol aimed at improving scalability and reducing transaction fees.

• Institutional Interest: 2018–2019

• Major financial institutions and investors began showing interest in Bitcoin, with the launch of Bitcoin futures by CME Group and Cboe, and the announcement of institutional investment products like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust.

• Third Halving: May 11, 2020

• The Bitcoin block reward was halved from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

  
  

4. Fourth Epoch (2020–2024)

• Bitcoin Hits All-Time High: November 2021

• Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of approximately $68,000, driven by continued institutional adoption and growing retail interest.

• El Salvador Adopts Bitcoin: September 2021

• El Salvador became the first country to officially adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, using it alongside the U.S. dollar for transactions.

• Bitcoin ETF Launch: October 2021

• The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was launched, marking the first Bitcoin futures ETF in the U.S. and opening the door for more institutional investment.

• SEC approves the launch of 11 Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January 2024.

• Fourth Halving: April 19, 2024

• The Bitcoin block reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

5th Epoch Predictions

As the 5th Bitcoin epoch progresses will we see other nation states in addition to El Salvador make Bitcoin legal tender? I firmly believe we will see at least one, if not more, nations adopt it as legal tender. Also, based on former President Donald Trump’s comments recently at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, TN, there is a decent chance we see a healthy amount of Bitcoin kept on the U.S. balance sheet. Imagine going from “magic internet money” to Treasury Reserve Asset in just 15 years? That’s particularly fast when considering that if Bitcoin were a person, it wouldn’t even be old enough to vote.

How about mining companies? Hashrate is at an all-time high and the battle to find cheap energy is intense. My prediction is that we will see many of these mining companies go out of business or be acquired by larger publicly listed firms like Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA). Further consolidation within the industry is likely.

Another prediction I will make is it will no longer be taboo for traditional financial advisors to talk about it. Not only will they talk about it, I believe we will see them begin to allocate more than 1% of people’s portfolios. I can foresee a scenario where 5–10% is the typical investor allocation.

Something else this epoch hodls is layer 2 and 3 solutions for defi, payment processing and a multitude of other use cases including voting records.

We will also begin to see banks that will be able to custody Bitcoin the way exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini do today. These institutions will also make borrowing against your bitcoin much easier. Important regulatory bills are being submitted to Congress currently that will allow for a smoother transition to digital assets for the masses. A key win would be for the government to make Bitcoin money and eliminate capital gains taxes when selling.

This is an exciting time to be in the industry as we continue to see history being made. Are you bullish enough, anon?