Macro Edge: The Liquidity Conditions Underneath Bitcoin and AI Infrastructure
Bitcoin treasury companies and AI data centre operators are leveraged bets on the same variable: the cost and availability of capital. Macro Edge scores that backdrop so the two rating frameworks published here can be read in context rather than in isolation.
What it measures
Seven scored inputs: the 10-year Treasury yield and the shape of the curve, bond market volatility (MOVE), equity volatility (VIX), the dollar (DXY), net liquidity (the Fed balance sheet less reverse repo), the Treasury General Account, and bitcoin's position against its long-term moving averages. Each input is standardised and weighted into a single composite, which maps to one of five regimes: Acceleration, Expansion, Neutral, Caution and Contraction. The band thresholds are fixed rather than fitted to recent data, so a regime change reflects conditions moving and not the model moving.
It tells you when it is wrong
Every input carries a freshness stamp. The model flags when a reading fails a data integrity check, raises an alarm when the smoothed and raw composites disagree, and checks its own bands for drift. Most macro products present a number and hide the conditions under which that number should not be trusted. This one publishes them alongside the score.
What it is not
It is not a trading signal. We checked whether its regimes predict forward returns, how far a stock runs, or the odds of a short-dated covered call being breached, using pass rules written down before any run and a 2018 to 2025 holdout period. They did not, beyond what recent volatility already tells you. So Macro Edge describes conditions; it does not pick strikes or time trades. That is what an advisor needs for a client conversation. Informational only, and not investment advice.